Yağış ve Sıcaklık Anomali Hesaplanmasında Referans Veri Etkinliğinin Araştırılması

OpenAlex İngilizce

Climate change has increased the importance in recent years. With the help of the developed scenarios, by predicting the future climate, it is aimed to eliminate the negative effects of climate change. In this study, the effectiveness of the reference data used to evaluate the future forecasts of climate change in temperature and precipitation parameters has been examined. Observed data of 11 Meteorology Stations (MS) located at different locations in the Eastern Black Sea Basin, which was determined as the research region, and precipitation and temperature projection data, obtained from GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR Global Circulation Model(GCM), have been used. In the study, by taking the data between 1971-2000 years, obtained by running the GCMs backwards, and the observed data in the same years as a reference, the precipitation and temperature changes for the periods between 2022-2040(P1), 2041-2070(P2) and 2071-2099(P3) average anomalies have been evaluated. As a result, it has been determined that the differences in the reference data selection, projection data and observed data, have an effect on the anomaly calculations. It has been concluded that the selection of reference data in regions with high natural relief is of critical importance for the performance of the climate analyzes.